Thoughts on Jets-Saints Game

While the game this week is certainly significant (if the Saints were able to get to 4-0, they'd build a sizable cushion in the NFC South), I have this sick feeling that one of my predictions might actually come true. For those that don't remember, on July 26, I made five predictions: 1) Saints would win the division, 2) Adrian Arrington would catch more than 50 passes, 3) Pierre Thomas would rush for over 1000 yards, 4) Drew Brees would get injured, and 5) Bobby McCray would have 10 or more sacks. Although the Adrian Arrington prediction is the only one officially off the table (he's on the practice squad after a partially torn hamstring kept him from showing his full potential in preseason), some of the other predictions aren't looking so good - ie, Bobby McCray getting more than ten sacks. However, I am almost certain that prediction number 4 will happen on Sunday.

Against the Eagles, Drew Brees went down hard on his shoulder. And his passing for less than 200 yards last week, I believe, was more a result of that injury than the Bills coverage scheme. What does that mean? All it will take is one good sack by the Jets D and Brees is going to be carted off the field. I don't want to say that's what's going to happen. There's just a sick feeling that I have that it will.

Even if Brees does go down, I think the defense will provide enough pressure to ensure a Saints victory. Last week was the first game that Williams incorporated a lot of his "morphed" 3-4 looks and twisting stunts that let Grant and Smith get more penetration into the backfield than I've seen from them in over 2 years. With Sanchez's over-dependence upon Dustin Keller, the key to this game for me is whether Vilma will be able to step in that passing lane to get at least one interception. If he does, Saints win. If he doesn't, the Saints' chances are considerably reduced.

One other key is the amount of touches Payton gives Reggie Bush. If Bush's touches are 15 or more, expect the Saints to lose in a low scoring game (ie, 20-17). If his touches are 10 or less, expect the Saints to win in a blowout. While it might sound arbitrary, 10 or less touches means that Payton goes to someone other than Bush early in the game, which means that the Saints will be able to develop early momentum. There's no better way to stall out a drive than to hand the ball off on 3rd and 2 to Reggie.