Mock Draft 7.0

With the Cutler trade out of the way, a lot of possibilities are off the board for the first round of the draft, including having to determine which way Chicago would draft in the first round. That said, there still seems to be a chance that Cleveland will trade Brady Quinn for another first round pick. I guess I'll deal with that if it happens.

Here's the latest mock:

1) Detroit Lions - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

For better or worse, I'm keeping Smith here. There's been a lot of speculation after Stafford and Sanchez's stellar pro days that either of them might go here. However, I don't think Detroit will go with either of them for two simple reasons. First, it would cost too much. Second, drafting the next Joey Harrington would be the fastest way to think that you are Matt Millen in disguise.

Even though the Lions could possibly go with Curry with this pick, I think that it would be perceived as a reach particularly with the amount of LB talent that will be available at the start of the 2nd round.

2) St. Louis Rams - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

The Rams have no choice but to try to replace Orlando Pace. Monroe is the best OT on the board.

3) Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

For my rationale on why I don't think the Chiefs will trade this pick, look at my explanation in Mock Draft 5.0. That said, the Chiefs would be delighted to snag Curry if he fell to them at #3. While teams are still reviewing his weaknesses in pass rushing (part of the reason I believe that Detroit will not go after him at #1), Curry is by far and away the best well-rounded LB prospect in the draft. By drafting Curry, the Chiefs' defense improves exponentially.

4) Seattle Seahawks - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

Even though my prediction for this pick is likely to draw the ire of Seahawks nation, I couldn't resist. I think that this guy's analysis gives a fairly good justification for the pick.

5) Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

I think most Browns fans would love to see this pick happen. Not only is it an area of need for Cleveland, but Mangini also loves to make an impression on a team by starting with the linebacking corps. Orakpo will be a far better pro than Vernon Ghoulston, who made Mangini drool all over himself last year.

For all those who believe the reports that the Browns are interested in Sanchez at this position, I really do hope that the Browns are smarter than that.

6) Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Ultimately, the Bengals have a greater need to give Carson Palmer pass protection than they do to give him another offensive weapon. The Bengals have consistently proved that they have no problem taking guys with character issues, so they have no problem taking Smith. I changed my mind about them selecting Crabtree here b/c they have only selected one WR in the first round since 1986, Peter Warrick, and we all know how that worked out.

7) Oakland Raiders, Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

Because I like to hate Al Davis and this would help me hate him more. If you don't like the prediction, blame Mike Mayock for putting the dirty little thought in my head.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Even though the Jaguars need to revamp their O-Line, they also need a true #1 threat at wide receiver. With last year's free agent bust Jerry Porter and the recent re-arrest and release of Matt Jones, the Jaguars have a need at WR that matches up nicely with Maclin's value.

9) Green Bay Packers - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

Due to the age of Green Bay's corners, they will be tempted to select CB at this position. They will probably consider their other options at this point in the draft - from selecting OLB to adding another quality DT in B.J. Raji. However, the couple of games where offenses were able to light up the Packers' secondary (ie, MNF game against the Saints) will probably be the tipping point in them going after the best CB in the draft.

10) San Francisco 49ers - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Due to Maclin being a better fit for Jacksonville and Crabtree's injury problems, Crabtree falls to this position. Even though the 49ers could easily go with Aaron Maybin or Everette Brown with this pick, the value of Crabtree here is too much for the 49ers to pass up.

11) Buffalo Bills - Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

Won't be going after Pettigrew with this pick. Why the switch from Jackson to Brown? The court of public opinion is playing up Brown more in recent days. Either way, Jackson or Brown playing opposite Stroud would elevate Buffalo's defensive line into the league's elite.

12) Denver Broncos - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

Mike Nolan would surely like to pick up a Patrick Willis type MLB in the form of Rey Maualuga here. However, with so many needs on defense, the Broncos are more focused on getting the best player available on defense. With how quickly Maybin is shooting up most draft boards, the Broncos will be lucky to have Maybin fall to them at 12.

13) Washington Redskins - Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

Well, this would appease those that started an on-line petition for Snyder to fix the offensive and defensive lines in the offseason. Snyder does appear to have in mind improving both lines, as he already took care of a major part of the defensive line by signing Albert Haynesworth. Even with all of the question marks surrounding Smith, he is a better talent than the defensive and offensive line talent on the board at this point of the draft.

14) Philadelphia Eagles (trade with New Orleans Saints) - Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State

The rationale for this trade is two-fold. First, picks around 14 have been routinely traded in recent drafts. Second, Philadelphia needs a big-time third down back. Kyle Eckel did a serviceable job for the Eagles down the stretch, but I believe that the Eagles ultimately parted ways with Buckhalter because they had this pick in mind. The Eagles trade because they get nervous that Houston will pick Wells with the next pick. Steve Slaton did a great job for the Texans last year, but the Texans have been looking for that premiere big back ever since they signed Ron Dayne. With not a lot of picks this year, the Saints are more than happy to oblige the Eagles.

15) Houston Texans - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Having missed out on Wells, the Texans turn their attention to the defensive side of teh ball. The Texans addressed their most pressing need on defense by signing DE Antonio Smith away from the Cardinals. Also, the Texans solved another problem through free agency by signing Eugene Wilson at safety. These moves leave two other principal areas of need for the Texans, strong side LB and CB. The combination of needing another solid CB and Dunta Robinson feeling betrayed by being franchised by the Texans tips the scale in favor of drafting Davis as opposed to a LB. Davis can complement Robinson in 2009 and will probably have to replace him in 2010.

16) San Diego Chargers - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

The sundry snippets and soundbytes of A.J. Smith seem to indicate that he is fairly committed to upgrading the O-Line in the draft. Rather than taking a chance that another team will snatch up the last couple of quality OTs if they trade down, San Diego decides to go with the talented run-blocking Britton. There's no better way to ensure that L.T. stays healthy and that Sproles is productive than investing in a big lane-creating OT.

17) New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

Although I still think that drafting Josh Freeman would be a better idea for the Jets, I am starting to succumb to the reality that Sanchez will probably be drafted before Freeman because of Sanchez's perceived value from having played in a more successful program.

Inasmuch as I didn't think the Jets would give Sanchez a private workout (I didn't think they were that high on him), I think their coming around to giving him a more serious look in a private workout tips their hand that they are seriously considering drafting him. However, I think that Sanchez is a serious case of buyer beware. Don't be surprised if he turns out to be another Matt Leinart type benchwarmer.

18) Denver Broncos - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Raji's off-field trouble ultimately cost him a good bit of dough as he drops to this position. Even though the Broncos have upgraded at DT through free agency, adding someone with Raji's talent wouldn't hurt. Again, the Broncos are looking at best player available, and Raji is still better rated than Maualuga.

Why won't the Broncos trade up? I think McDaniels is sold on Orton's talent. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Orton blossom like another former Purdue QB when he went from a team on which he wasn't appreciated to a wide-open spread offense. Just wait until the end of the season to call me crazy on the Drew Brees theory.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

Even with missing out on Albert Haynesworth, the Bucs are able to upgrade at DT with Jerry. The degree of interest that the Bucs exhibited in chasing Haynesworth shows that the Bucs will not be satisfied until they sign someone like Jerry that can lend significant talent to that position. With Raji off the board, Jerry makes sense as the best remaining DT in the draft.

20) Detroit Lions - Rey Maualuga, MLB, Ohio State

This would be a great fit for the Lions. After upgrading at OLB by getting Julian Peterson in free agency, Maualuga provides a toughness that will be a big piece in rebuilding the Lions' defense.

21) New Orleans Saints (trade with Philadelphia Eagles) - Larry English, OLB/DE, Northern Illinois

Maybe this pick is just about me loving the idea that the Saints would be smart enough to trade down and draft a quality player in a position of need and then give Shanle the boot. Most pundits have the Saints reaching for a CB at this position. However, given Loomis' history of refusing to spend a first round pick on CB (remember Usama Young and Tracy Porter are both second rounders), I see the Saints going with defensive line or linebacker here. I like English too much to say the Saints will pass him over. And pairs up Payton's two draft loves - getting guys from smaller schools (Marques Colston, Usama Young, etc) and schools in Illinois (Pierre Thomas - hey, who cares if he was signed as an undrafted free agent!). Bottom line, draft English and give Shanle the boot.

For everyone that says that the Saints will not draft English simply because he is a 3-4 type of OLB, I think they are missing the point that English is a talented and versatile OLB. And he certainly has a better skill set and more nastiness (an attribute that the Saints' defense desperately needs) than Shanle. If you can upgrade at a serious position of need, why not do it?

22) Minnesota Vikings - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

The Vikings have shown that they are interested in getting a top tier talent at WR through the draft. They took a long hard look at Heyward-Bey, but, with him off the board, they decide to go with the next best explosive option. While the Vikings could go with Duke Robinson or Tyson Jackson at this position, I think that possibility for getting a home-run hitting WR like Devery Henderson is for the New Orleans Saints will be the swing factor in drafting Harvin. While Harvin doesn't have the outright speed like Henderson, he has deceptive speed that always seemed to have him outrunning SEC defenses last year.

23) New England Patriots - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

The Patriots continue their youth movement at LB by drafting a young buck to play alongside last year's pickup Jerod Mayo. Cushing is solid in every facet of his game and will probably perform better as a pro than Maualuga. Once again, the Patriots get the spoils by doing their homework and realizing that Cushing will slide all the way down here.

The reason that Cushing slides? All of those steroid rumors have a way of doing that.

24) Atlanta Falcons - Clay Matthews, OLB, USC

The Falcons decided to address their need at middle linebacker through free agency by signing Mike Peterson. However, the Falcons could still stand to upgrade their linebacking corps and/or add depth. Skilled talent evaluator Dimitroff will not underestimate the playmaking abilities of Matthews, who I believe will turn out to be a better pro than Maualuga or Cushing, and will snatch up Matthews for the value of the pick if for no other reason (some draft boards have Matthews being taken in the top 15 picks).

25) Miami Dolphins - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

Jackson is one of the hardest people to figure out in the draft. He could be a top 10 pick, or he could fall out of the first round. I don't think either of those will be the case, but I do think that he will slide a bit more than some predict.

As far as the Dolphins, a guy like Jackson is a dream for them. He will help upgrade the pass rush, which Tony Sparano has insisted is the first priority for the Dolphins in the off-season.

26) Baltimore Ravens - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

There are questions about Smith's size and the Ravens' desire to draft a CB when they've already signed quite a few in free agency. Also, there is a need for the Ravens at WR. However, with Heyward-Bey off the board at this point, I think that the Ravens will look for a combination of BPA who plays like a Raven. Smith's ball-hawking instincts and tenacity seem to fit the bill.

27) Indianapolis Colts - James Laurinaitis, MLB, Ohio State

While the Colts hate to go with needs picks, they decide to take a calculated risk with this pick due to a gaping need at the position. Also, I think that the Colts would have gone with a WR if one of the top four prospects were still on the board.

28) Philadelphia Eagles - Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma

The Eagles don't have much of a choice with this pick. With the departure of Tra Thomas, they desperately need an OT to take his place. By drafting Robinson, they give themselves flexibility for either Robinson to transform into an OT or for one of the current members of the offensive line to transition to OT. Either way, the Eagles get a big body that will help them accomplish their goal of improving on third and short conversions.

29) New York Giants - Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

One of the biggest barriers to the Giants returning to the Super Bowl was the late-season antics of Plaxico Burress. Don't expect Jerry Reese to leave New York's Super Bowl hopes in Plaxico's hands again. While Britt won't be able to supply the breakaway speed that you lose when Burress is out of the game, he could be a big body downfield receiver that has serviceable speed. Because I've already seemed to use a lot of Saints analogies in this mock draft, I'll use another. Think Marques Colston.

30) Tennessee Titans - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

With Jevon Kearse aging, the Titans would greatly benefit from a new kid on the block at DE. Ayers has been highly regarded by all the draft experts, but not many of them seem to think that he is worth more than a late first round pick. Much like Tyson Jackson, it is difficult to gauge where Ayers will fall exactly. However, if he falls all the way to Tennessee, expect them to snatch him up.

31) Arizona Cardinals - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

No, they're going to take Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno! Ok, they might. But, it seems that one of the biggest weaknesses that the Cardinals had throughout their playoff run was a dominating TE. Also, Jason Wright should be a serviceable backup RB to, at least in part, make up for the loss of J.J. Arrington. Ultimately, Pettigrew is too good to pass up at number 31. Oh, and by the way, the Ravens selected Todd Heap at the end of the first round in 2001.

32) Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Mack, C, California

While the Steelers have a lot of options at this pick, they need to use this pick to rebuild their offensive line. The O-Line was the weakest part of the team throughout the season. While the Steelers could draft an OT, they would have to go with someone like William Beatty, who would be a reach for this pick. Also, the Steelers are confident that Starks will permanently replace Marvel Smith at the position by franchise tagging Starks for this season. At guard, the Steelers could pick up Andy Levitre, but center seems like a bigger need, as Justin Hartwig surrendered more sacks (6.5) than any other center in the league this past season. In any case, this pick could go a lot of different ways (and I'll probably change my mind again before the draft gets here).