Mock Draft 6.0

Thanks to everyone who participated in the poll. Seeing that 300+ voters believe "other" was the most likely team to trade, I think you will find my latest prediction on which team in the top 10 will trade to hopefully be surprising and intriguing.

Also, my update is a little later this week because I was trying to wait out the Jay Cutler controversy. However, I am getting the impression that even if a Cutler trade goes down, it will not be before the draft. Therefore, no Detroit trade at #1.

Without further ado, here's Mock Draft 6.0:

1) Detroit Lions - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

I've changed my mind at this pick from Aaron Curry to Jason Smith for three mains reasons. First, the Lions invited Smith to their complex before any of the other projected #1 picks. The Lions sort've did the same thing with their coach hiring process. They brought in Schwartz and then put on a dog and pony show making it seem like three or four other candidates had a shot at the job before announcing that Schwartz was the one all along.

Second, there will be better talent left at LB than at OT by the time the draft gets to the Lions' pick at 20.

Third, the Lions don't seem to be gushing quite enough over Stafford. Signing a QB at #1 is expensive, and if you aren't totally sold on the product, you aren't going to make an impulse buy here.

2) St. Louis Rams - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

The Rams have no choice but to try to replace Orlando Pace. Monroe is the best OT on the board.

3) Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

For my rationale on why I don't think the Chiefs will trade this pick, look at my explanation in Mock Draft 5.0. That said, the Chiefs would be delighted to snag Curry if he fell to them at #3. While teams are still reviewing his weaknesses in pass rushing (part of the reason I believe that Detroit will not go after him at #1), Curry is by far and away the best well-rounded LB prospect in the draft. By drafting Curry, the Chiefs' defense improves exponentially.

4) Seattle Seahawks - Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

One of the urgent needs of the Seahawks is a big center to anchor their offensive line. However, it would be a major reach to draft any of them at number four. Also, Crabtree might be the BPA at this point, but the Seahawks have already made a sizable investment in T.J. Houshmandzadeh to shore up the wide receiving corps. The rationale for this pick is ultimately that the need at DE is greater for the Seahawks than at WR because of the amount of time Patrick Kerney spent injured and the regression of Darryl Tapp in 2008. However, the Seahawks awareness of their bad defensive line picks in the past decade (ie, Lamar King) might shift them into taking an OT because of a lesser likelihood of having a bust.

5) Cleveland Browns - Aaron Maybin, OLB/DE, Penn State

Alas, some crazy draft trade involving Brady Quinn and Shaun Rogers will probably not happen. Why draft Maybin so high? Although some people have Maybin falling to the bottom of the first round, Maybin is becoming known as one of the best 3-4 OLBs in the draft. While Kiper and Mayock's individual opinions might be hit and miss, something seems afoot when they agree. Both agree that it will be no surprise to see Maybin shoot this far up the draft charts. And it doesn't hurt that this is a big area of need for the Browns.

6) Cincinnati Bengals - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

Even though the Bengals are in dire need of a dominating OT, they also could use help at WR. Ultimately, the decision to go with OT or WR is which pick would better enable Carson Palmer to get back to his productivity of a few years ago. Arguably, a true #1 WR (yes, Chad Johnson is an overrated non-dominant receiver who can't catch a ball with his hands) would provide more help than a new OT. However, I could see the Bengals going either way with this pick.

7) San Francisco 49ers (trade with Oakland Raiders), Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

I can't believe I've done this, but it does seem to make sense with the recent news out of 49er country. First, why will the Raiders trade? Because it seems like any player they would take at this position would be a reach. Even when they were in the running for a new center, before the Samson Satele trade, Alex Mack would have been a reach here.

Second, why will the 49ers trade up? Even though some might read the bizarre psychological test that the 49ers gave Stafford to be an indication that they don't like him (you still have issues with your mom so you can't play for us), I read it as them trying to make him look bad enough so that he will slide to the 7 spot. We will only know if it works come draft day, but something inside me says it will.

The final reason for this trade is that I can't justify Stafford going later than 7. Regardless of his abilities, his perceived quality is a top 3 pick. Therefore, if he falls this far, teams will be elbowing one another to get in on a trade for him. The 49ers seem to have the most motivation because of their need at QB (don't tell me that their current QB situation is acceptable to Singletary) and their proximity to the 7 spot.

Ultimately, I think that this trade happens more because of the 49ers' desire to trade up than the Raiders' desire to trade down.

8) Jacksonville Jaguars - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

Even though the Jaguars need to revamp their O-Line, they also need a true #1 threat at wide receiver. With last year's free agent bust Jerry Porter and the recent re-arrest and release of Matt Jones, the Jaguars have a need at WR that matches up nicely with Maclin's value.

9) Green Bay Packers - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

Due to the age of Green Bay's corners, they will be tempted to select CB at this position. They will probably consider their other options at this point in the draft - from selecting OLB to adding another quality DT in B.J. Raji. However, the couple of games where offenses were able to light up the Packers' secondary (ie, MNF game against the Saints) will probably be the tipping point in them going after the best CB in the draft.

10) Oakland Raiders, Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

The Raiders can take hard-hitting Maualuga as their new MLB and move softy Kirk Morrison to OLB. By trading down, the Raiders make a smart draft move for once.

11) Buffalo Bills - Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

Won't be going after Pettigrew with this pick. Why the switch from Jackson to Brown? The court of public opinion is playing up Brown more in recent days. Either way, Jackson or Brown playing opposite Stroud would elevate Buffalo's defensive line into the league's elite.

12) Denver Broncos - BJ Raji, DT, Boston College

Even though the Broncos have signed quite a bit of DTs already this offseason, Raji brings a unique blend of skills to the DT position that the Broncos sorely need. Also, Raji did workout privately for the Broncos a week ago. This would be a value pick for the Broncos, especially due to the fact that some have Raji going in the top five of the draft. Yes, he has some character issues but that will get overlooked because of the degree of his talent.

13) Washington Redskins - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Well, this would appease those that started an on-line petition for Snyder to fix the offensive and defensive lines in the offseason. Snyder does appear to have in mind improving both lines, as he already took care of a major part of the defensive line by signing Albert Haynesworth. Even with all of the question marks surrounding Smith, he is a better talent than the defensive and offensive line talent on the board at this point of the draft.

14) Philadelphia Eagles (trade with New Orleans Saints) - Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State

The rationale for this trade is two-fold. First, picks in around 15th position have been routinely traded in recent drafts. Second, Philadelphia needs a big-time third down back. Kyle Eckel did a serviceable job for the Eagles down the stretch, but I believe that the Eagles ultimately parted ways with Buckhalter because they had this pick in mind. The Eagles trade because they get nervous that Houston will pick Wells with the next pick. Steve Slaton did a great job for the Texans last year, but the Texans have been looking for that premiere big back ever since they signed Ron Dayne. With not a lot of picks this year, the Saints are more than happy to oblige the Eagles.

15) Houston Texans - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Having missed out on Wells, the Texans turn their attention to the defensive side of teh ball. The Texans addressed their most pressing need on defense by signing DE Antonio Smith away from the Cardinals. Also, the Texans solved another problem through free agency by signing Eugene Wilson at safety. These moves leave two other principal areas of need for the Texans, strong side LB and CB. The combination of needing another solid CB and Dunta Robinson feeling betrayed by being franchised by the Texans tips the scale in favor of drafting Davis as opposed to a LB. Davis can complement Robinson in 2009 and will probably have to replace him in 2010.

16) San Diego Chargers - Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

I sobered up between Mock Draft 5.0 and now and realized that even an inexperienced GM wouldn't fall for the trade I had proposed with Tampa Bay. Also, I hadn't realized how gung-ho A.J. Smith is about fixing the Chargers' O-Line. Rather than taking a chance that another team will snatch up the last couple of quality OTs if they trade down, San Diego decides to go with the talented run-blocking Oher. There's no better way to ensure that L.T. stays healthy and that Sproles is productive than investing in a big lane-creating OT.

17) New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

Although I still think that drafting Josh Freeman would be a better idea for the Jets, I am starting to succumb to the reality that Sanchez will probably be drafted before Freeman because of Sanchez's perceived value from having played in a more successful program.

Inasmuch as I didn't think the Jets would give Sanchez a private workout (I didn't think they were that high on him), I think their coming around to giving him a more serious look in a private workout tips their hand that they are seriously considering drafting him. However, I think that Sanchez is a serious case of buyer beware. Don't be surprised if he turns out to be another Matt Leinart type benchwarmer.

18) Chicago Bears - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

With the retirement of John Tait, the Bears need a new right tackle. Even with the signing of Frank Omiyale in free agency, the Bears will most likely still have a hole at ROT b/c GM Jerry Angelo seems to be leaning toward Omiyale playing at guard. It would be unlikely that the Bears go after a QB, as they seem to be satisfied (in a relative sense) with the play that they received from Orton last season. Therefore, although this is a reach for the Bears to draft Britton at this position (talent evaluators seem hesitant to place him in the top 20 prospects), it is ultimately the best fit.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

Even with missing out on Albert Haynesworth, the Bucs are able to upgrade at DT with Jerry. The degree of interest that the Bucs exhibited in chasing Haynesworth shows that the Bucs will not be satisfied until they sign someone like Jerry that can lend significant talent to that position. With Raji off the board, Jerry makes sense as the best remaining DT in the draft.

20) Detroit Lions - James Laurinaitis, MLB, Ohio State

This pick ends up coming down to need for the Lions. Their acquisition of Julian Peterson in free agency shows that they are looking to upgrade their LB corps this offseason. While Laurinaitis is a bit of a stretch at this position, Schwartz will probably be able to come up with some unique schemes to cover up Laurinaitis' lack of ideal speed. However, don't be surprised if the Lions don't pick Laurinaitis here for him to still be available at the top of the second round.

21) New Orleans Saints (trade with Philadelphia Eagles) - Larry English, OLB/DE, Northern Illinois

Maybe this pick is just about me loving the idea that the Saints would be smart enough to trade down and draft a quality player in a position of need and then give Shanle the boot. Most pundits have the Saints reaching for a CB at this position. However, given Loomis' history of refusing to spend a first round pick on CB (remember Usama Young and Tracy Porter are both second rounders), I see the Saints going with defensive line or linebacker here. I like English too much to say the Saints will pass him over. And pairs up Payton's two draft loves - getting guys from smaller schools (Marques Colston, Usama Young, etc) and schools in Illinois (Pierre Thomas - hey, who cares if he was signed as an undrafted free agent!). Bottom line, draft English and give Shanle the boot.

For everyone that says that the Saints will not draft English simply because he is a 3-4 type of OLB, I think they are missing the point that English is a talented and versatile OLB. And he certainly has a better skill set and more nastiness (an attribute that the Saints' defense desperately needs) than Shanle. If you can upgrade at a serious position of need, why not do it?

22) Minnesota Vikings - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

The Vikings have worked out Heyward-Bey and there is no reason to believe that they would not be interested in adding a lightning bolt to their WR arsenal in order to help out whoever starts at QB next season. While the Vikings could go with Duke Robinson or Tyson Jackson at this position, I think that possibility for getting a home-run hitting WR like Devery Henderson is for the New Orleans Saints will be the swing factor in drafting Heyward-Bey.

23) New England Patriots - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

The Patriots continue their youth movement at LB by drafting a young buck to play alongside last year's pickup Jerod Mayo. Cushing is solid in every facet of his game and will probably perform better as a pro than Maualuga. Once again, the Patriots get the spoils by doing their homework and realizing that Cushing will slide all the way down here.

24) Atlanta Falcons - Clay Matthews, OLB, USC

The Falcons decided to address their need at middle linebacker through free agency by signing Mike Peterson. However, the Falcons could still stand to upgrade their linebacking corps and/or add depth. Skilled talent evaluator Dimitroff will not underestimate the playmaking abilities of Matthews, who I believe will turn out to be a better pro than Maualuga or Cushing, and will snatch up Matthews for the value of the pick if for no other reason (some draft boards have Matthews being taken in the top 15 picks).

25) Miami Dolphins - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

Jackson is one of the hardest people to figure out in the draft. He could be a top 10 pick, or he could fall out of the first round. I don't think either of those will be the case, but I do think that he will slide a bit more than some predict.

As far as the Dolphins, a guy like Jackson is a dream for them. He will help upgrade the pass rush, which Tony Sparano has insisted is the first priority for the Dolphins in the off-season.

26) Baltimore Ravens - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

There are questions about Smith's size and the Ravens' desire to draft a CB when they've already signed quite a few in free agency. Also, there is a need for the Ravens at WR. However, with Heyward-Bey off the board at this point, I think that the Ravens will look for a combination of BPA who plays like a Raven. Smith's ball-hawking instincts and tenacity seem to fit the bill.

27) Indianapolis Colts - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

With the departure of Marvin Harrison, the Colts gladly welcome this gift that falls to them. Although Harvin will likely fall this far in the first round, it will not be surprising if he has the most productive season out of all of the WR taken in the first round.

28) Philadelphia Eagles - Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma

The Eagles don't have much of a choice with this pick. With the departure of Tra Thomas, they desperately need an OT to take his place. By drafting Robinson, they give themselves flexibility for either Robinson to transform into an OT or for one of the current members of the offensive line to transition to OT. Either way, the Eagles get a big body that will help them accomplish their goal of improving on third and short conversions.

29) New York Giants - Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

One of the biggest barriers to the Giants returning to the Super Bowl was the late-season antics of Plaxico Burress. Don't expect Jerry Reese to leave New York's Super Bowl hopes in Plaxico's hands again. While Britt won't be able to supply the breakaway speed that you lose when Burress is out of the game, he could be a big body downfield receiver that has serviceable speed. Because I've already seemed to use a lot of Saints analogies in this mock draft, I'll use another. Think Marques Colston.

30) Tennessee Titans - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

With Jevon Kearse aging, the Titans would greatly benefit from a new kid on the block at DE. Ayers has been highly regarded by all the draft experts, but not many of them seem to think that he is worth more than a late first round pick. Much like Tyson Jackson, it is difficult to gauge where Ayers will fall exactly. However, if he falls all the way to Tennessee, expect them to snatch him up.

31) Arizona Cardinals - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

No, they're going to take Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno! Ok, they might. But, it seems that one of the biggest weaknesses that the Cardinals had throughout their playoff run was a dominating TE. Also, Jason Wright should be a serviceable backup RB to, at least in part, make up for the loss of J.J. Arrington. Ultimately, Pettigrew is too good to pass up at number 31. Oh, and by the way, the Ravens selected Todd Heap at the end of the first round in 2001.

32) Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Mack, C, California

While the Steelers have a lot of options at this pick, they need to use this pick to rebuild their offensive line. The O-Line was the weakest part of the team throughout the season. While the Steelers could draft an OT, they would have to go with someone like William Beatty, who would be a reach for this pick. Also, the Steelers are confident that Starks will permanently replace Marvel Smith at the position by franchise tagging Starks for this season. At guard, the Steelers could pick up Andy Levitre, but center seems like a bigger need, as Justin Hartwig surrendered more sacks (6.5) than any other center in the league this past season. In any case, this pick could go a lot of different ways (and I'll probably change my mind again before the draft gets here).